by Scott Lewis, Brightworks Sustainability founder and CEO
In terms of the quantity of oil potentially available, ultimate Canadian oil sand reserves are thought to be in the region of 1.7 trillion barrels, with 315 billion probable barrels accessible using technology currently under development. US oil shale deposits are estimated at 1.5 trillion barrels of reserves there are currently only estimates as to what proportion may be recoverable, but the figure used by the US government is 800 billion barrels.
If all 1,115 billion barrels of these recoverable unconventional reserves in North America were exploited, it would result in estimated well to wheel emissions of 980 Gt CO2, equating to an estimated increase in atmospheric CO2 levels of between 49 and 65ppm. This could be catastrophic given that our atmospheric levels are already at 430ppm CO2e and we risk a new global extinction event if we pass the 450ppm CO2e stabilisation target and trigger global mean temperature increases above 2°C.
As Jim Hansen, Director of the NASA Goddard Institute and Adjunct Professor of Earth and Environmental Sciences at Columbia University’s Earth Institute, has said, “squeezing oil from shale mountains is not an option that would allow our planet and its inhabitants to survive”.